Based on the current progress for Windows 10 version 1903, due to arrive next spring, it now looks like the fall update for the OS will arrive around Sept. 10 or Sept. 24.

Microsoft last week released the first preview of what will become Windows 10 version 1903, the opening feature upgrade of next year, slated to ship in the spring.

The debut of what Microsoft calls the “Skip Ahead” build for Windows 10 1903 also hints that the release of this fall’s upgrade, aka 1809, will take place in September. If so, it would be the first time since late-2015 that the actual delivery date matched the numerical label.

On July 25, Microsoft forked the 1809 preview of Windows 10 – as it’s done before when a feature upgrade approaches – so developers could continue to deliver betas for that build while also beginning to work on the next-in-line, 1903. (Microsoft uses a yymm labeling system to mark its Windows 10 feature upgrades; 1809 should indicate a September 2018 release, while 1903 would be a March 2019 release.)

When it forks preview code, Microsoft provides the even-further-in-the-future build, in this case, 1903, to Windows Insider participants who earlier volunteered for Skip Ahead. As the current feature upgrade gets close to release, Microsoft switches Skip Ahead users to the following upgrade, so that engineers can start collecting feedback on that version even as they keep polishing the one set to launch soon. The bulk of Insiders remain on the latter.

Think of the Skip Ahead debut as a warning bell, like the one rung at track meets when racers start the final lap: When Microsoft begins to ship Skip Ahead code, it’s close to wrapping up the impending feature upgrade.

In 2017, as Windows 10 1709 (aka “Fall Creators Update”) neared completion, Microsoft first forked the preview code and distributed a different build to Skip Aheaders on Aug. 31. Windows 10 1709 began its release cycle on Oct. 17, or 47 days later. With this year’s version 1803, Skip Ahead debuted Feb. 14, or 75 days before the April 30 release of that upgrade.

(Windows 10 1803’s original launch date, reportedly April 10 – which was one of two dates Computerworld had forecast in February – was postponed by 20 days after a deal-breaking bug was uncovered at nearly the last minute.)

For one estimate of the release date for Windows 10 1809, Computerworld added 47 days to July 25, arriving at Sept. 10. A second estimate was generated by adding 61 days – the average of the two previous Skip Ahead triggers – to July 25, resulting in a Sept. 24 rollout.

Because the last three feature upgrades launched on either a Monday or Tuesday – April 11, 2017 for version 1703; Oct. 17, 2017 for 1709; April 30, 2018 for 1803 – Sept. 10 or 11 would be the most likely release dates for 1809, absent a show-stopping problem like the bug before 1803’s launch. Computerworld’s alternate forecast would be September 24 or 25, also a Monday/Tuesday combination, because it would match the previous upgrades’ average time-between-Skip-Ahead-and-release.

If Microsoft does release Windows 10 1809 in September, it would be the first time since November 2015 that the company has matched delivery date and the upgrade’s label. Version 1511 debuted Nov. 10, 2015. The four subsequent upgrades, 1607, 1703, 1709 and 1803, all missed their release months by between 2 and 30 days. (Version 1607 came the nearest, releasing Aug. 2, 2016.)

Although Microsoft has never expressly tied itself to March and September release months – in a support document, it gives itself wiggle room by stating that feature upgrades will be released “twice per year, around March and September [emphasis added]” – the disconnect between release and numerical designation has always seemed odd.

Issuing feature upgrades during the appointed months would be a sign that Microsoft has gotten a better handle on the rapid development tempo it has at times struggled with executing. It would also be a step toward a more predictable schedule, which was the point of the pledge it made over a year ago to issue a pair of feature upgrades annually.

Recent changes by Microsoft to the Windows 10 support schedule underline why Windows 10 Pro is an ill fit for most companies.

Windows 10 Pro is a dead end for enterprises, a prominent Gartner analyst has argued.

“[We] predict that Microsoft will continue positioning Windows [10] Pro as a release that is not appropriate for enterprises by reducing … support and limiting access to enterprise management features,” Stephen Kleynhans, a research vice president at Gartner and one of the research firm’s resident Windows experts, said in a report he co-authored.

Microsoft’s Windows 10 Pro occupies the middle ground between the consumer-grade Home and the corporate-level Enterprise in features, functionality and price. Because Enterprise versions of Windows have never been available to computer makers, Pro – sometimes, as in Windows 7, tagged Professional instead – has been the most popular pre-installed OS on new business PCs. (Corporations typically re-image new personal computers with Enterprise upon receipt of the devices.)

But although Pro or Professional has a long history in business settings, Microsoft has made numerous decisions in its Windows 10 migration campaign to separate Pro and Enterprise even more, pushing them apart. In Kleynhans’ view, the gap has become unbridgeable.

The last straw was Microsoft’s on-the-fly changes to Windows 10 support.

Last year, the Redmond, Wash. developer announced a six-month support extension for Windows 10 1511, the November 2015 feature upgrade, “to help some early enterprise adopters that are still finishing their transition to Windows as a service.” In February, Microsoft added versions 1609, 1703 and 1709 – released in mid-2016, and in April and October of 2017, respectively – to the extended support list, giving each 24 months of support, not the usual 18.

“Some customers have requested an extension to the standard 18 months of support for Windows 10 releases,” a Microsoft executive said at the time.

There was a catch: Only Windows 10 Enterprise (and Windows 10 Education, a similar version for public and private school districts and universities) qualified for the extra six months of support. Users running Windows 10 Pro were still required to upgrade to a successor SKU (stock-keeping unit) within 18 months to continue receiving security patches and other bug fixes.

Windows 10 Enterprise 1709, for example, and its free “supplemental servicing,” will exhaust support in October 2019. But Windows 10 Pro 1709 runs out of support on April 9, 2019.

“The one thing that really surprised me about the added support,” said Kleynhans in an interview, “was the fact that it didn’t apply to Pro. I think that this telegraphed the fact that, for businesses, Pro is being dead-ended.”

Even though the six-month support extension ended with the 1803 feature upgrade, the one that began reaching some users late last month, in the report Kleynhans co-wrote with Gartner colleague Michael Silver, the duo made clear that they believe Pro is viewed by Microsoft as a second-class citizen.

“Customers currently using Windows 10 Pro should continue to monitor Microsoft’s life cycle announcements because they will eventually need to budget for Windows [10] Enterprise as Windows [10] Pro becomes more ‘pro-sumer’ and small-business oriented,” they wrote in a six-item list of recommendations.

Another component of Microsoft’s current Windows 10 support strategy, something the company has labeled “paid supplemental servicing,” was also out of bounds for those running Windows 10 Pro. The extra support, which Microsoft will sell at an undisclosed price, is available only to Enterprise and Education customers.

Paid supplemental servicing adds 12 months to the 18 months provided free of charge.

“The extensions and paid support option only apply to the Enterprise and Education SKUs,” Kleynhans and Silver said in their report, “Plan and Budget for Short Windows and Office Support Cycles Based on Microsoft’s February 2018 Announcements,” which was published by Gartner last month. “Customers using Windows 10 Pro will still see support end after 18 months. In this way, Microsoft is further reinforcing that it expects enterprise customers to move to the Enterprise edition of Windows 10.”

The company also ended support for 1607 to users of Windows 10 Home and Pro.

Microsoft finally retired a 2015 version of Windows 10, marking 29 months of support for the untitled feature upgrade, nearly as long a stretch as the time between the releases of Windows 8 and Windows 10.

Windows 10 1511 – Microsoft labels its feature upgrades in a yymm format – received a final set of security patches on April 10.

The retirement date had originally been slated for Oct. 10, 2017, but last November Microsoft extended it an additional six months, albeit only for commercial customers. “To help some early enterprise adopters that are still finishing their transition to Windows as a service, we will be providing a supplemental servicing package for Windows 10, version 1511, for an additional six months, until April 2018,” Michael Niehaus, at the time a director of product marketing for Windows, said in a 2017 post to a company blog.

Customers running Windows 10 Enterprise or Windows 10 Education were given the support reprieve; those operating lesser SKUs (stock-keeping units), including Windows 10 Home and Windows 10 Pro, had their support curtailed last October.

Earlier this year, Microsoft added six months of support to all versions of Enterprise and Education, raising the support roof from 18 months to 24 for not only 1511, but also for 1607, 1703 and 1709. The less expensive, less expansive, Home and Pro, however, retained the 18-month support timeline.

Also destined for an April 10 retirement party was Windows 10 1607, the mid-2016 feature upgrade that received its last security patches that day on Windows 10 Home and Windows 10 Pro. Meanwhile, version 1607 on Enterprise and Education will continue receiving fixes until Oct. 9.

Windows 10’s bifurcated support timelines – 18 months for some SKUs, 24 months for others – complicate what had been an easy-to-understand practice of patching versions for a year and a half. Period.

Microsoft has tried to inform customers of the support due them by reminding them in January’s and February’s cumulative updates that patches end for Enterprise and Education, version 1511. “The additional servicing offer for Windows 10, version 1511 ends on April 10, 2018, and doesn’t extend beyond this date. To continue receiving security and quality updates, Microsoft recommends updating to the latest version of Windows 10,” the March documentation said.

The company has extended the lifespan of other software previously, including the original version of Windows 10, tagged as 1507. In February 2017, it added six weeks to the timetable. Generally, however, Microsoft has been hard-nosed about support deadlines, and for good reason.

“The danger is that customers won’t believe Microsoft will end support when they say [they will],” said Gartner analyst Michael Silver in a 2017 interview. “It would set a bad precedent if organizations think that they can rely on Microsoft to constantly extend [support].”

By hewing to the once-revised deadline for 1511, Microsoft had drawn a line in the sand, showing commercial customers that while it may bend to their demands, it will not break with critical policies, like these, which are foundation to its Windows-as-a-service concept.

The latest numbers from the company show businesses are close to schedule to move away from Windows 7 before the older OS retires in early 2020.

Windows10 Enterprise

Microsoft on Tuesday said that some 200 million enterprise workers now run Windows 10, a sign that corporations and other businesses are close to schedule to scrub Windows 7 from their machines before that older OS retires in about 20 months, an analyst argued.

“The 200 million resonates with me, based on what I’m hearing from clients,” said Stephen Kleynhans of Gartner Research. Migrations to Windows 10, he added, are progressing “pretty aggressively.”

Joe Belfiore, a corporate vice president who leads the Windows 10 team, revealed the number at Microsoft’s Build developers conference Tuesday. “Right now, there are over 200 million people in corporate accounts using Windows 10,” Belfiore said as he claimed deployment is “really ramping up” in the enterprise. “We’ve seen that [Windows 10] adoption rate increase now at 79% year-over-year growth.”

The day before, Microsoft contended that “nearly 700 million” devices are running Windows 10 worldwide. On that basis, enterprises accounted for less than 30% of all copies of Windows 10.

(Although the two numbers – Belfiore’s 200 million people using Windows 10 in corporate settings and Microsoft’s 700 million devices powered by the operating system – measured two different things, it’s not uncommon for Microsoft to obfuscate this way to prevent direct comparisons. In actuality, because Microsoft typically sells licenses on a per user basis, with multiple devices allowed for each user, 200 million people may be using more than that number of Windows 10 devices.)

While neither the percentage nor the 200 million are to be sneezed at, the former is significantly less than the average overall for commercial PCs, which have historically accounted for more than half – 55% has been an often-cited figure – of all personal computers.

And while Kleynhans did not dispute Microsoft’s claim of 200 people running Windows 10 in the enterprise, he sounded a bit disappointed in the number. “Is it a low number? It’s a little behind where I thought it would be,” Kleynhans said, noting that he expected it to be around 250 million by this point, perhaps even close to 300 million.

That 2009 operating system will fall off Microsoft’s support list on Jan. 14, 2020, meaning that while Windows 7 will continue to work as before, the Redmond, Wash. will stop distributing security updates to it.

It’s unrealistic to expect that all commercial customers will have purged Windows 7 by the retirement date, Kleynhans said, pointing out that he has recently spoken with clients who still run some instances of Windows XP (retired from support in 2014) and even Windows 98 (2006).

“What we [Gartner] expect is that enterprises will get to the 85%-90% level by the deadline,” Kleynhans said of the percentage of corporate devices shifted to Windows 7, “maybe even a little higher than that.” Nothing that’s happened has changed that estimate, he added.

“There are always laggards,” Kleynhans said.

According to other metrics, there may be a considerable number of them.

Estimates from analytics vendors, including U.S.-based Net Applications, which measure user and usage shares, signal that a large resorvoir of Windows 7 users will remain after the operating system’s retirement in 20 months. Net Applications’ latest data, for example, drove a Computerworld forecast that of the world’s Windows personal computers – all the PCs, not just those in the enterprise – 42% would still be running Windows 7 in January 2020, a much larger percentage than the 29% powered by Windows XP when that edition fell off the support list in April 2014.

In the end, large organizations will do what it takes to get off Windows 7 and onto Windows 10 by the former’s support cut-off date. The 200 million touted by Belfiore this week will be quite different a year from now, Kleynhans was certain.

“The speed with which I see Windows 10 moving now, it’s not going to be an issue,” he said.

Windows 10 deployment is, like previous iterations of the OS, on a timetable not of its own making. Instead, because of the vagarities of Microsoft’s historical release schedule and corporate acceptance (or rejection) of some editions, there is a clock ticking on Windows 10 because of the impending retirement of the current corporate standard, Windows 7.

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